First came the nighttime abduction of the friendly Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, then the boarding of two «shadow» tankers in the Atlantic, and now the announcement of «bone-crushing» sanctions that Congress had postponed all of last year. It seems incredible that less than two weeks ago, pro-government media in Russia were seriously anticipating a rapprochement between Moscow and Washington and predicting diplomatic isolation for Kyiv. The «spirit of Anchorage,» which Kremlin propaganda so eagerly inhaled last autumn, has completely dissipated by winter.

#Analytics #Venezuela #VladimirPutin #WarinUkraine #DonaldTrump #acrisis #NicolasMaduro #Russia #USA #shadowfleet

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The fewer economic, cultural, and simply human ties between Russia and European countries, the more conflict stories there are, the easier it will be to turn toward a possible military clash. No one in Europe wants such a development, but a peaceful Russian-Ukrainian agreement as imposed by the American administration looks like a respite for the aggressor. Therefore, Europe and Ukraine need to build a new structure to deter Russia together, without wasting time.

#Analytics #security #WarinUkraine #weapons #Germany #EuropeanUnion #NATO #truce #Putin #Russia #USA #Trump #Athreat #France

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The organizers of the November UN climate summit in Belém, Brazil, called the thirtieth round of annual negotiations a «moment of truth» and a «time for action.» «Arctida’s» analyst who attended the summit, explains why these expectations were not met.

#KS30 #Analytics #Arctic #Globalwarming #GlobalSouth #west #fossilfuels #climatesummitinBelarus #LatinAmerica #UN #ParisAgreement #Duzhokgases #SaudiArabia #countrywithatransitioneconomy #finance

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The Russian regime can only voluntarily end such a large-scale conflict as the war in Ukraine with a victory. But what exactly counts as a victory—capturing another Donbas district center, reaching the borders of the «new regions,» or the public execution of Zelensky—after almost 1,400 days of carnage, the Kremlin and Ostankino still haven’t decided.

#Analytics #VladimirZelensky #WarinUkraine #diplomacy #DonaldTrump #KirillDmitriev #collectivePutin #scandal #SteveWitkoff

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Moscow's persistent attempts to demonstrate the unshakable nature of its partnership with Astana are the best evidence that, in reality, many things are changing there.

#Analytics #WarinUkraine #Kazakhstan #aftertheUSSR #Putin #Russia #Tokayev #Trump #CentralAsia

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The trial began in Paris two weeks ago, accusing 10 people of online harassment of the First Lady of France. The accused — bloggers and internet publications prone to conspiracy theories — have for years spread rumors that Brigitte Macron was born a man and underwent gender transition. Neither the fact that the woman has three children from her first marriage, nor other obvious circumstances of her life, disproving such extravagant versions from the standpoint of common sense, stopped these claims.

#MAGICIAN #Analytics #BrigitteMacron #theInternet #influencers #informationsociety #conspiracytheories #newethics #Russia #socialnetwork #USA #transphobia #France #haters

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Despite its predictability, Mamdani’s campaign unsurprisingly attracted massive international attention. This marks the peak of political activism for Generation Z, which literally carried the 34-year-old regional legislator into the New York mayor’s residence. Despite last year’s predictions of the imminent demise of wokism, radical progressives are gradually returning to the agenda.

#Analytics #elections #ZohranMamdani #zoomers #leftandright #people #NewYork #Palestine #populism #USA #elites

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A fairly powerful and for many unexpected series of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries can intensify the energy crisis in Russia. And this, in turn, will force the Kremlin to shift from military expansion into other countries to addressing its own socio-economic problems.

#Analytics #gasolinecrisis #WarinUkraine #ArmedForcesofUkraine #drones #EuropeanUnion #China #oil #Regions #Russia #sanctions

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The new prime minister of the country, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron, suddenly turned out to be the very same person who resigned from the same position three days before the appointment.

#Analytics #democracy #pensionreform #governmentcrisis #rightandleft #protests #France #EmmanuelMacron

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The verdict for former French President Nicolas Sarkozy was announced at the end of September in a Paris court and naturally sparked a storm of emotions and commentary. For the first time in history, a French president has been found so guilty that, according to the court, he deserved a punishment of imprisonment without the possibility of reduction to a suspended sentence or application of other leniency measures.

#Analytics #corruption #MuammarGaddafi #NicolasSarkozy #criminalpunishmentandpunishment #France

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Another round of conflict in the Middle East drags on: Israel is losing allies and facing new accusations. Can a new initiative from Donald Trump bring the country an honorable peace in this context? How justified are the criticisms leveled against the Jewish state—genocide, occupation, and colonization of Palestinian lands? And does the State of Palestine even exist, as Western countries have been recognizing it one after another recently? On the second anniversary of the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel and the start of the war in the Gaza Strip, we try to understand this with Marianna Belenkaya, a journalist and Middle East expert, author of the Telegram channel «Falafelnaya.»

#October72023 #Analytics #antiSemitism #MiddleEast #war #DonaldTrump #Israel #interview #Palestine #rightandleft #GazaStrip #TonyBlair #Hamas

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At the highest level of Russian power, there is almost no renewal. Many elite members have been waiting for a major reshuffle for over 10 years, but it still hasn’t happened.

#AlexeyMiller #Analytics #VladimirPutin #WarinUkraine #state #DmitryKozak #IgorSechin #career #MikhailFradkov #NikolayPatrushev #Russia #SergeyKiriyenko #elites

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At the beginning of September, a meeting took place in Paris with representatives from 35 countries interested in the activities of the «Coalition of the Willing.» The essence of this peacekeeping idea, conceived six months ago, is to station troops from Ukraine's allied countries on its territory.

#Analytics #Belgium #WarinUkraine #Germany #europe #coalition #NATO #Russia #solidarity #Balticcountries #France

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Last week, during the Eastern Economic Forum, acknowledged problems with the slowdown of the Russian economy but added that victory over inflation is more important – supposedly, it's better for the people. However, the issue is not the welfare of the citizens. The continuation of the war requires increased spending on it. And here, strict monetary policy is unavoidable. This will result in the labor of the majority of Russian citizens becoming cheaper.

#Analytics #VladimirPutin #militaryKeynesianism #WarinUkraine #GermanGref #state #monetarypolicy #lifeinRussia #society #Economy #ElviraNabiullina

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From a rational point of view, China should be interested in preserving Europe as that part of the Western world that does not claim a global role but remains one of its economic centers. For Beijing, it would be preferable to deal not with one, represented by the USA, but with two versions of the West. If these considerations are valid, Chairman Xi is unlikely to advise President Putin to attack Estonia and promise him his support—in fact, it can be assumed that the China factor will contribute to containing the Russian threat to Europe rather than strengthening it.

#Analytics #Brussels #Washington #war #weapons #diplomacy #europe #China #odd #Macron #Moscow #Beijing #Putin #Russia #USA #Taiwan #Trump #Ukraine #espionage

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Rosneft has made significant investments in India and does not want to lose them. ExxonMobil has invested just as heavily in Sakhalin-1 and is equally unwilling to lose its stake. India has stakes in Sakhalin-1 and also earns good profits from Rosneft’s investments in the country, and it too is reluctant to lose all this. The only ones spoiling the situation are two people: Trump, who wants to end the war by any means, and Putin, who does not want to stop it. And who better than Sechin to try to solve this puzzle?

#Exxon #Analytics #VladimirPutin #DonaldTrump #IgorSechin #India #NarendraModi #NarendraMori #oil #Russia #sanctions #USA

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Let’s imagine for a moment that by some magical means Russia managed to get all sanctions lifted without exception, annexed all the territories Putin talks about, reduced the military budget, and began living as if nothing had happened. This is exactly what a huge number of people living in Russia dream of.

#1990s #Analytics #business #WarinUkraine #state #Donbass #west #greencrossing #investments #foreignersinRussia #China #oil #parallelimport #forecast #Russia #sanctions #rawmaterialseconomy #technology #LaborandCapital #coal

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The main condition for achieving peace in Ukraine that Vladimir Putin constantly names is the «elimination of the root causes of the crisis.» «Root causes» is a very broad, even philosophical term. But without delving into Aristotle's metaphysics, who introduced this term, the root cause of the war is not Ukraine's politics, but the imperial evolution of post-Soviet Russia.

#Analytics #AnatolySobchak #BelovezhAccords #VladimirPutin #gkchp #dictatorship #Empire #NATO #aftertheUSSR #collapseoftheUSSR #Russia #sovereignty #Ukraine #federation

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The problem of Russia's return to peace is multi-layered. One layer is the reverse structural restructuring, partial or complete. The second is the preservation and lifting of sanctions and other restrictions. The third is the social consequences, related not only to the absorption by the labor market of more than half a million former fighters but also to disruptions in business groups tied to the war.

#Analytics #militaryindustrialcomplex #war #investments #world #Putin #Russia #sanctions #USA #Trump #Ukraine #Economy

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The American side is not going to make any concessions, at least according to the statements made. The EU pays for everything, receiving nothing in return. But this is not the only oddity of the deal, if we use Trump's terminology.

#Analytics #business #diplomacy #DonaldTrump #EuropeanUnion #investments #duties #USA #tradewar #UrsulavonderLeyen

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